I was really looking forward to watching Kyle Busch make a run at 30th in points and a spot in the Chase over the next couple of months. But, after Michigan, I'm pretty confident that's not going to happen.
While it's not an impossible task for Busch, the numbers say there's a better chance of Donald Trump being elected president.
To get to where we estimate 30th will be, Busch will need to average an 11th place finish over the next 11 races. And, he still needs to get a win.
Along those lines, for fun, let's say he wins a couple of races, getting max points both times,. To get to 30th would require an average finish of 14th in the other 9 races.
While he does have wins at 8 of the remaining 11 tracks before the Chase, he has a career average finish of 14th or better at just 7 of them.
Would a win in the next couple of week re-energize the quest? Sure. But, unfortunately, it's going to take a lot more than that quickly to give that jolt any legs.